Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.178398 0.212859 0.253780 0.306409 0.372956 0.455182 0.565852
2025-06-22 0.133959 0.174122 0.227214 0.304050 0.414998 0.573614 0.825610
2025-06-29 0.100167 0.139338 0.195804 0.286034 0.432380 0.671563 1.118024
2025-07-06 0.068000 0.099159 0.146905 0.228903 0.374048 0.637468 1.199001
2025-07-13 0.055398 0.085138 0.133970 0.225146 0.404361 0.774957 1.715443
2025-07-20 0.047317 0.076486 0.127718 0.231761 0.459820 1.003394 2.692250
2025-07-27 0.041412 0.070218 0.124191 0.243294 0.535212 1.345812 4.529153
2025-08-03 0.036130 0.063922 0.119125 0.250690 0.609695 1.772958 7.680570
2025-08-10 0.030839 0.056490 0.109961 0.245997 0.653813 2.176780 12.184160
2025-08-17 0.026099 0.049201 0.099343 0.234216 0.673366 2.541617 18.424344
2025-08-24 0.023059 0.044835 0.094221 0.235525 0.741109 3.254680 33.261513
2025-08-31 0.020701 0.041473 0.090646 0.240293 0.830349 4.304683 67.187410
2025-09-07 0.018579 0.038415 0.087572 0.247569 0.951419 6.025965 170.402334
2025-09-14 0.016710 0.035577 0.084380 0.253804 1.084757 8.513927 521.367862
2025-09-21 0.014647 0.031875 0.077903 0.245812 1.143566 10.771850 1491.970019
2025-09-28 0.011847 0.025881 0.063594 0.202397 0.956330 9.325286 1541.455193
2025-10-05 0.010717 0.023932 0.060624 0.202753 1.049255 12.629410 7612.256128
2025-10-12 0.009952 0.022780 0.059752 0.211736 1.222834 19.352105 176170.019052
2025-10-19 0.009352 0.021955 0.059706 0.224906 1.465187 32.221592 NaN
2025-10-26 0.008726 0.020946 0.058812 0.234120 1.707888 52.818688 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007976 0.019453 0.055908 0.231862 1.844366 75.891848 NaN
2025-11-09 0.007211 0.017795 0.052034 0.222532 1.892159 98.650317 NaN
2025-11-16 0.006708 0.016826 0.050404 0.225148 2.108992 159.826246 NaN